Room: International AB
Sponsor(s)
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Session Description
1. Are We Predicting Well Enough? A Closer Look at Bus ETA Accuracy in Ontario
Speaker: Denis Matarangas – CIMA+
Over the past two decades, real-time information has fundamentally transformed the experience of public transit riders. The arrival of CAD/AVL systems and passenger information applications has eliminated the uncertainty that once defined public transit use: riders no longer have to wonder whether the bus has already passed, how long they will wait, or whether they have missed a connection. Yet, despite the widespread deployment of real-time tools across nearly all transit systems, very few agencies have rigorously measured the actual accuracy of the predictions they provide.
This presentation explores why the quality of bus arrival predictions matters, both for rider trust and for operational decision-making. Using anonymized data from several Ontario transit agencies, the session presents concrete findings on ETA accuracy, highlighting where predictions perform well and where systematic issues emerge. The discussion will walk through common sources of prediction errors—ranging from schedule design and vehicle behavior to algorithmic limitations and data inconsistencies—and will outline how agencies can begin assessing, interpreting, and improving their real-time performance.
The goal is to bring clarity to a topic that is often taken for granted: how reliable are the predictions we provide to riders, and what can transit systems do to improve them?
2. Revisiting Runtime Calibration & On Time Performance: Strategies & Peer Exchange
Speaker: Michel Couval – CSched
Route runtimes and layovers are the cornerstones of scheduling efficiency, but they are driven by the performance metrics you choose to enforce. Are our established OTP industry standards, like the traditional “-1/+5” window, actually in line with todayÂ’s technologies and innovations?
Adhering to legacy metrics in a modern data environment can create a disconnect: schedules that look good on paper but increase driver stress, drive up operating costs and fail to meet evolving passenger expectations. If your OTP targets are outdated, your entire calibration strategy is built on a flawed foundation.
This workshop challenges transit professionals to rethink practices. In a two-part interactive session, we will first dissect various OTP targets and calibration strategies, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each. Then, we shift to a peer debate to challenge perspectives and share real-world realities. CSched will outline key decision points to ensure discussions are grounded in operational reality. To support immediate application, participants will leave with a “Best Practices Cheat Sheet”.
Speaker(s) / Presenter(s)
Bio:
Bio:
Principal and founder of CSched, a consultant firm with extensive international experience in transit operations planning. Undertook serveral service efficiency analyses and audit to develop and implement alternate scheduling practices to reduce operating costs and improve tansit system performance.
Provided scheduling training, coaching and assistance to transit agencies for running time calibration, timetabling, vehicle blocking, operator run cutting. Supported labor negociations to price-tag current, proposed and negotiated labor rules.
Specialties: Mass transit operations planning, manual and computer-assisted. HASTUS scheduling software. Scheduling efficiency evaluation and improvement.